Will Ukraine shoot down Russian planes over the Caspian Sea?

It is no secret that most of the missile attacks on Ukraine are carried out from strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea region.

Our insiders report on behind-the-scenes negotiations between the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan.

Russian strategic bombers, freely taking off from airfields in Aktyubinsk and Engels, enter combat positions over the Caspian Sea and launch missile attacks on the territory of Ukraine.

This situation is extremely dangerous for Ukraine and worries the command of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces.

In words, the military leadership of Azerbaijan supports the deployment of Ukrainian air defense on its territory, but the political leadership of the republic does not give permission for the deployment for fear of drawing Azerbaijan into the conflict.

But the situation can change dramatically.

During the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijani troops managed to regain control of the disputed territory.

As a result, a situation arose where the Russian peacekeeping forces located in Nagorno-Karabakh since 2020 remained “out of work.”

Some Russian peacekeepers have already been withdrawn from the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh; Russian troops may remain in the region until 2025.

The Azerbaijani authorities have to maneuver between Russia and Ukraine. On the one hand, the Russian military contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh helped Azerbaijan accumulate resources for a successful attack, and on the other hand, between Ukraine and Azerbaijan there is a Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership, within the framework of which Azerbaijan does not recognize the annexation of Crimea, and Ukraine does not recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic created with the support of Armenia.

As the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is resolved, the rapprochement between Ukraine and Azerbaijan may be closer than Russia expected.

The deployment of Ukrainian air defense on the territory of Azerbaijan will make it possible to control most of the Caspian Sea.

The first Russian missile carrier shot down over the Caspian Sea will demonstrate the vulnerability of the Russian Aerospace Forces in this region.

Moreover, Ukrainian military bases in Azerbaijan will threaten Russian airfields in Dagestan and the Astrakhan region.

However, the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between Ukraine and Azerbaijan does not imply cooperation in the form of direct military assistance.

Time and the desire of both parties will tell whether this agreement will be supplemented or a new agreement will be concluded on its basis.